The Use of Academic Data and Demographic Data from Recently Graduated High School Students to Predict Acdemic Success at Sauk Valley Community College

In order to determine which academic and demographic factors were the most important predictors of academic success at Sauk Valley Community College (SVCC), data from 699 recently graduated high school students were analyzed. College success was defined in five manners: (1) fall semester grade-point-average (FGPA), (2) Momentum (number of credit hours students accumulated), (3) Persistence (the percentage of student credit hours they completed), (4) Grade Points (Momentum FGPA), and (5) semester-to-semester retention (did the student reenroll in the following semester?). Five demographic variables and 16 academic variables were used to create statistical models that could predict college success.
The analysis indicated that females are better prepared for college than males and moderately outperformed males once enrolled at the college. A similar trend was found for White students who were better prepared for college than both Hispanic and Black students. White students outperformed students from other minority groups at SVCC in all but one academic measure. Students that declared a goal of eventually transferring to a four-year postsecondary institution were also better prepared for college than students who wanted to attain a certificate or two-year vocational degree. However, there was only a slight difference in academic performance at SVCC.
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High school grade-point-average (HSGPA) was the number one or number two best predictor variable in all five college success models. The number of credits a student enrolled in during the first semester in college was also a powerful predictor in three of the five models. Other demographic and academic variables were not related to or only weakly related to college success. The most important significant remaining predictor variables were the high school a student attended and the number of science and weighted classes a student completed in high school. ACT scores and COMPASS scores were generally not important predictors of college success at the college.